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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 12, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar had a rough trading during Thursday session. Earlier it rallied then reversed then rebounded again, switching from highs to lows. The short-term trading range moves within 1.3650 as support level then 1.3750 gives off resistance level. The short-term trading is good enough while the long-term proceeds to move higher.

A surge in the oil market was seen but the commodity market moves the Canadian dollar round again as expected. There is a lot of concerns in the currency such as easing of Canadian banks in home loans which is getting out-of-hand.

The bank is having a hard time with rising house bubble particularly in Ontario implying a negative impact on the economy and influence the Canadian currency for a long term. Although there is a long-term bias in the upper channel, a signal from technical indicators would be best before start buying the pair. If the market could close the pair more than the 1.37 level, this indicates strong support and pullbacks in the short-term charts. This pair is good to be traded for a long-term in small positions and just add gradual orders in the long run.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 12, 2017

The EUR/GBP had an upbeat session yesterday since the region 0.84 provided another leg. The market still sees that this area as significant and a renewed low would look for shorting again. But the pair tries to search for a momentum in which short-term buyers will draw into upon staying on top of the 0.8420 mark but below the mark would not attract trader to attempt making a gap below.
Moreover, the longer-term rallies will offer some selling opportunities, not until a break over the 0.85 range.
We had witnessed that the trading on Thursday was impulsive which could affect some noise in the near-term. With this, the buyers would also move in the short-term, however, there are some resistive barriers set on top of it, together with the clusters present in the market that continued offering a bit of selling pressure.
Expecting for an exhaustive candle is the best way possible to trade in the market, letting the market to be in your favor while the British pound can be offered at a cheaper level.
The downtrend would probably accelerate upon breaking down beneath the weekly lows.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 12, 2017

The New Zealand dollar dropped during the Thursday session following the decision of the Royal Bank of New Zealand of keeping the rates unchanged in an overheated market. At the same time, the country’s economy is not performing well with a weak global demand for commodities. It seems that the market would break down with the last few hours showing signs of stability that could finish off violently until it gets sufficient momentum to break down.

If the price breaks lower than the 0.68 handle, the long-term downtrend is anticipated to persist while rallies open selling opportunities especially when it almost reaches the 0.69 handle. An exhaustive candle is enough to induce selling of the New Zealand dollar which could become a problem.

The central banks give off commentaries regarding the global economy that has caught global attention. They are suggesting that the probable reason for the current economic condition is that there is a hidden problem in Asia and New Zealand sees it as a relevant problem. On the other hand, the greenback is seen to appreciate in value which in turn push the pair lower.

Commodity-related currencies are not performing well and the kiwi has become that basis of the commodity market implying that the pair would move bearishly. It may not be best to buy this pair, at least not right now since it is anticipated to have a high volatility in the market. A rally would only help the greenback and this would affect the pair which would leave it steadily traded and not have a major shift in short-term. However, if the price breaks down, the next target would be at 0.65 handle in the long-term.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 15, 2017

The USD/JPY pair closed down on a much lower note during Friday’s trading session as investors reacted to a disappointing retail sales data and consumer inflation data from the US economy, which created a bearish bias for fundamental traders. Technical traders soon became bearish as well when the currency pair closed down under the 50% level at 113.390 points. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 113.323 points after decreasing by -0.47% or 0.535 points.
Today’s session could be subject to a pronounced weakness during the first few hours as a result of an insubstantial follow-through selling which was mostly due to the weak news releases from the US economy. The dismal data from the US economy could mean that there could be lesser rate hikes from the Federal Reserve within the year, although it is highly unlikely that the central bank would postpone its scheduled rate hike next month. In addition, several traders are now moving their funds from high-risk assets into safer ones such as the Japanese yen after traders became concerned with the widespread cyber attacks last week, which could possibly affect today’s trading session. The said cyber attack, which was able to hit over 200,000 victims in over 150 countries, could possibly worsen today since most people will be going back to work today.
As such, the USD/JPY pair is expected to undergo significant trading pressure following a mixture of both fundamental and technical factors, although selloffs in the currency pair could possibly heighten if the said cyber attack indeed worsens throughout the day.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 15, 2017

The GBP/USD pair got a hard-earned correction, something which has been long-anticipated by traders in this currency pair. The cable had previously found it very difficult to even reach the very critical trading range of 1.3000 points in spite of the evident market risk and a surge in the value of EU currencies following Macron’s victory in the French national elections.
The pair’s bulls were then able to trigger the GBP/USD pair into trying to move past the 1.3000 region, however this was not enough as the currency pair met a resistance at the 1.2980 trading range. The currency pair then resorted to a slow-paced ranging and consolidation for the rest of the week as the market chose to step back and monitor the results of the Bank of England’s rate announcement as well as its policy summary data. This was released last Thursday, wherein the BoE chose to maintain their current interest rates and then stated in their policy summary that the market should not expect any adjustments in the central bank’s rates for the duration of this year. The market then opted to interpret this statement as dovish although the statement was not absolutely bearish, and this caused the said correction of the cable pair. The currency pair then dropped past 1.2900 points but was able to benefit from a stable support region at 1.2850 which has prevented the currency pair from dropping further down its range.
For this week, the UK economy will be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, which are both expected to come out as positive just like the previous economic data from the country’s economy. The continuing positive data from the UK is one of the primary reasons why the sterling pound is still able to hold its ground in spite of the various uncertainties surrounding the economy, such as the Brexit negotiations and the forthcoming UK elections.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The USD/CAD moves like from pillar to post last Friday and continuously grinding above 1.37 handle. Meanwhile, the oil markets appeared to be disorganized as of the moment. We are directly standing above the channel while a pullback is inessential, however, when this price movement occurred then a move to the lower area would likely follow. Possibly down to the region 1.35 and moving through the mark 1.3250. Contrarily, a break over the channel, particularly in the 1.38 handle, will cause the market to trail atop of the level 1.40. Mainly, the oil markets should be given much consideration as it extensively weighs to the Canadian dollar.
Moreover, the commodity-linked pair is expected to be choppy but it looks like that the oil is in action at this time. The housing market in Canada shows some uncertainties while concerns may arise since the history of the US housing bubble were still remembered clearly by many traders.
The markets should consider sustaining a volatile session, however, the general uptrend will continue to drive through the upside in the longer-term. It further allows the longer-term and steady traders to acquire gains on top of the 1.40 range.
It is recommended to seek for pullbacks which provide value upon getting the chance as the greenbacks continued to be favored by the North American currency.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The Cable decline within the week as it tested the bottom of the hammer in the past week. The range 1.2950 appeared to be resistive, moving near the 1.3 region. A break over the mentioned level will push the market around 1.3450, wherein a previous resistance was seen.
A cut through in that area would likely be bullish, however, there is a significant level of support found at 1.2750 range.
To be honest, it will be a tedious job to grind below just like breaking upwards. The short-term trading could possibly the simplest thing to accomplish since the market has high possibility to consolidate amid the two regions.
A move in the long-term is anticipated and a needs to break out within area to execute the trade. Meanwhile, a range bound short term is predicted as it will remain to take notice.
Moreover, a breakdown underneath 1.2750 will cause the market to continue to slide.
A significant amount of support can be found below, however, it would appear like the longer term downtrend resumption.
The British currency is currently surrounded by lots of dynamic strains, hence expect for a complex trend over here. In light of this, we decided to allow the market to take an action deliberately.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The Australian dollar surged during the Friday session. A strong resistance found enough resistance higher than 0.74 level to reverse the trend and formed a shooting star pattern. This gives a negative indication with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and formed a hammer pattern in the weekly chart.

A break higher than the peak of the shooting pattern is a bullish sentiment which may persist for the week. The indicators are conflicting with time frames that make it more practical to go for long-term positions. However, if the price breaks low and reaches a fresh new low is not a good indication. Hence, it may not be wise to sell this pair until a fresh new low is reached.

Gold market will have an impact on the Australian dollar and it is now currently trying to rally supporting down below. The pair moves uptrend same goes with the gold market and also based on the weekly hammer, there is a chance for the price to further move upward.

Nevertheless, the market will have high volatility and traders should be prepared for price fluctuations. If the price breaks down, this gives a bearish tone in the market and there is still chance to move and reach down towards the 0.7150 level. The safest way is to wait on the sidelines until the market has decided on what to do and it is more profitable.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The EURUSD edged upwards amid Friday sessions as it cleared up the top of Wednesday and Thursday candles followed by the release of the less than stellar figures of United States. In light of this, the market would likely touch above the 1.10 region which the resistance.
A gap over the mentioned area indicates a bullish tone, probably moving towards the 1.13 range trailing to 1.15 eventually.
The market consolidated in the midst of 1.05 and 1.15 levels in the past years. We are currently located in middle of the trading range which is close to the “fair value” which results for a complex trading setting in the near future.
The back and forth trading in the near-term is highly anticipated for the next few sessions. While short-term charts will also lead forward since consolidation is required in the overall region.
A gap overhead the 1.10 area will trigger further purchasing interest. However, a break below the 1.0750 mark will drove to 1.05 handle.
The market is projected to be very volatile and uneasy to trade, mainly because of the concerns that the European Union are currently involved with the United Kingdom together with other nations.
Despite the results, it is vital to maintain your stop loss take, and take note that the market is somewhat aimless in the long-term.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session lower than the 113.50 level. This level is an important psychological level which is a “fair value” of the consolidation. If the market is able to break lower than the base of the levels, it could further go down towards the 112 region which is the naturally expected next support level.

A shooting star was seen in its weekly chart that indicates the downtrend that makes it more practical to trade in short positions rather than buying the pair.

The pair is relative to a risk appetite for the stock market particularly the S&P 500 index and the movement of the treasury market. The recent U.S. data was below expectations that shifted the market’s expectations with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as previously aimed.

The parabola pattern seen in the charts indicates the persistence of buyers in the market although a pullback is needed to continue with the bullish sentiment. The 112 region supports this notion and it will not be surprising if there will be pullbacks and buyers predominating the market. The price could rally higher if the price break more than the 115 level and the uptrend will persist to move higher. Overall, the market will be choppy while most young pairs are anticipated to form shooting stars on weekly charts.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017

The euro against the British pound broke in the higher region during the Friday session as it breaks higher than the peak of the shooting star pattern formed. Consolidation is anticipated to occur although the hammer formed in the weekly candle. This gives a very bullish sign following of breaching the psychological levels and further supported by the support region indicates that the price could go much higher.

The 0.83 level below is very supportive and it would be best to wait until it breaks even lower before selling the pair. There will also be a higher amount of noise level found below as the market tries to push the pair higher and above 0.87 level. Pullbacks open opportunities to buy indicates support of the current trend.

As the United Kingdom about to leave the European Union which will most likely affect the market and move it around bringing high volatility in the market. However, political rhetorics within the regions and regarding the British isles.

It seems that the market will rally soon but only for short-term. There is still uncertainty for a long term and traders wait for certainty before making its next big move. Traders should expect a lot of choppiness in the market and traders would benefit the uptrend of the market. Hence, it is anticipated for buyers to buy in times of pullbacks in the next few days.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 15, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had a somewhat limited trading range during last week’s session, with the currency pair still having difficulty with regards to breaking through the 1.3800 region. However the pair’s bulls have not given up just yet as the bulls continue to dominate the 1.3650 trading range, and this contradictions has caused the currency pair to range and consolidate for the rest of last week’s trading session.
As of now, the USD/CAD pair remains pressured by a bullish bias as the currency pair continues to inch higher, with all corrections being shallow and are almost immediately met by bounces and quick buys. In addition, ratings firm Moodys has also downgraded the outlook for the Bank of Canada to negative as banks were increasingly subject to downward pressure following drops in the housing economy as well as other economic issues which affected the central bank. The Canadian dollar was also dragged down lower by the oil prices, which was unable to make a substantial recovery during the later parts of last week. The possibility of a trade war between Canada and US has also further bogged down the Canadian economy, and all of these has brought down the loonie and could possibly push the USD/CAD pair towards its medium-term target of 1.4000 points.
For this week, the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and oil inventory data, while Canada will be releasing its CPI and retail sales data, both of which will be closely monitored by the market as they will look for possible indications of whether the various geopolitical concerns have started to manifest on these particular set of data. If this indeed manifests, then the currency pair could be able to finally surpass 1.3800 and advance towards 1.4000 points.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The EURUSD trailed upwards on Monday as the European yields gained much strength and drove the yield differential towards the EUR’s favor against the Treasuries which made it possible for the exchange rate increase.
Meanwhile, New York Manufacturing suddenly declines and Italy’s inflation is determined close to the target level of the European Central Bank. On the other hand, the GDP of Portugal bolstered and the economic ministry of Germany was positive based on the growth of the German nation.
The pair climbed higher touching the resistance within the downtrend sloping line found near the level 1.0990. The support came in at 1.0923 region which is the former resistance lies beside the 10-day moving average.
Further resistance is spotted at 1.0760 located within the 50-day moving average. The momentum appeared neutral since the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints in a flat trajectory which indicates for a consolidation.
Moreover, the RSI bounced off to the 62 mark that is down to the current peaks of 70 and the oversold level 40.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was able to prop itself up higher during the previous trading session after the euro regained some of its previous footing. One of the reasons why the currency pair has been able to move consistently higher is the renewed bullishness of the ECB as well as a slew of positive data from the Eurozone.
Given any other situation, the EUR/USD pair’s strength would be reliant on the current status of the dollar. However, these past few weeks, the spotlight has been more on the euro instead of the US dollar. This is why the currency pair has exhibited a steady trading manner whenever the USD is trading on a positive note, just like yesterday’s session. The dollar strength which manifested yesterday has adversely affected the sterling pound, but this was not the case for the EUR/USD pair as well as for the safe haven currency USD/JPY, which also increased in value. The EUR/USD pair advanced forward primarily due to the euro’s strong trading stance, with the currency pair managing to reach 1.0950 points and even attempted to reach 1.1000 points although its efforts to reach this particular region fell short during the session. However, the currency pair might soon reach this specific range if its current momentum does not dissipate in the short-term.
For today’s session, the EU economy will be releasing its GDP data and ZEW economic sentiment, while US will be releasing its building permits data during the latter part of today’s session. These are all minor data releases and are not expected to induce volatility into the currency pair. The EUR/USD pair could possibly breeze through 1.1000 easily if the traders would react favorably to the news that Trump has indeed leaked confidential data to the Russian government via the White House.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a very volatile price action during yesterday’s trading session in spite of the fact that the pair had a tight trading range. The currency pair has been moving in a steady manner during the start of the week as it reacted to the dollar weakness. The cable pair has since then moved from 1.2880 points to 1.2900 points and even reached as far as 1.2940 points during the previous session.
However, the USD was able to regain some of its losses during the NY session and this caused the GBP/USD pair to revert back towards 1.2880 points. The cable pair encountered some large-scale buys at this region and this helped the cable pair to again test the 1.2900 trading this morning. It is then safe to say that the past 24 hours has been a roller coaster ride for the pair and its traders. There are no significant geopolitical news which might have triggered this sudden activity in the pair, while the usual suspects such as the Brexit negotiations and the forthcoming UK elections are still posing the same risk as before. This lack of direction in the pair’s trading action can then be attributed to traders moving to position themselves for the currency pair’s next movement. Traders should expect the cable pair to remain consolidating until the commencement of the UK elections next month.
For today’s session, the UK economy will be releasing its CPI data during the European session. If the CPI data follows the current trend of very strong economic data from this region, the the GBP/USD pair would then be able to reach 1.2950 points within the day.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017

The USD/JPY pair experienced a turnaround during yesterday’s trading session after a sudden high demand for high-risk assets manifested during the earlier parts of the Monday session. The JPY was initially boosted by flight-to-safety buys but immediately disappeared as market investors chose to shift their focus to the surge in US equity markets. The USD/JPY pair closed down yesterday’s session at 113.787 points after increasing by +0.41% or 0.464 points.
Investors were generally worried with regards to Trump’s unexpected firing of FBI Director James Comey, the cyber-attack which made headlines last Friday, and the ballistic missile launch from the DPRK. The currency pair then began to hit rock-bottom after traders were practically unresponsive to these recent developments. This price action from the USD/JPY shows that investors might have become somewhat oblivious to these said developments. In fact, the cyber-attack was able to benefit the market after tech giants such as Cisco posted gains following the said online attacks.
For today’s trading session, investors will be waiting for the release of industrial production data, mortgage delinquencies data, building permits, capacity utilization data, and housing starts data from the US economy. If this specific set of data comes out as a market disappointment, then the chance of the Fed implementing more rate hikes in the future might be lessened, although the June rate hike has been pretty much priced in by the market already. In any case, this could also cause the US dollar to drop further in value.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The Australian currency initiated a rally amid Monday session and broke the 0.74 region above. A resistance in the 0.7450 level was seen and moved downwards. While the area 0.7425 provided support which is the former resistance. The 0.74 region is expected to offer further support or any kind of supportive candle either a rebound within the market which is a good buying opportunity.
Apparently, the Aussie is significantly linked with a risk appetite that requires a slight optimism with regards to the stock and future markets.
The precious metal, gold should also be considered since the AUD has a strong correlation with the market activity. The gold market is bounded by bullish pressure yesterday that drove the Australian dollar.
A higher breakout would clear the 0.7450 region and will move near 0.75 since it holds an amount of psychological importance.
The support that underlies in the market and a cut through the 0.7380 range would impose selling the market. The greenbacks will also be affected and it is vital to pay attention to these factors, however, the Aussie is currently short-term showing an active movement while the momentum should also be taken into consideration as this can move sideways.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The EUR/GBP weakened on Monday, however, found another leg around the level 0.8450. A rebound within that level had broken the 0.85 handle above. From there, a resistance is found and a decline is expected
As shown in the hourly chart, the stochastic oscillator touched oversold territory and began crossing and would likely require a pullback.
The pair is known to have limited moves in every single session and it does not surprise everyone, it further moves ahead of the 0.8460 region. The mentioned region is predicted to provide some support which could open doors for a short-term selling opportunity.
The Chunnel appeared to be volatile because of the discussions between the European Union and the United Kingdom.
An alternate scenario involves the breakout in the upside making a clear 0.8515 level which could possibly move higher until it reached the top of 0.86 handle. The market appeared to be choppy lately and we project for a trading opportunity.
A breakdown underneath the 0.8450 mark is negative. The market is viewed to be impulsive on some occasions, however, it offers various opportunities in trading.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017

The British pound surged during the beginning of Monday session. The 1.2940 level offers strong resistance but returned to 1.29 handle which is starting to position as a supportive level and the market tries to push the levels higher.

However, traders should expect high volatility amid the ongoing Brexit negotiations. Although, it is anticipated for the currency to improve and exceed expectations with the inflation hints seen recently. Both the CPI and PPP from Great Britain are about to come out that affect trading as a whole.

It would be good to form a long-term supportive candle at 1.29 level or even a breakout is much better. If the price break higher than the 1.30 level, the price could move towards the 1.3450 region as the peak of consolidation that the market is trying to gap. On the other hand, if a breakdown lower than the 1.2850 level, it could bring the price down towards the massive support at 1.2750 are down below.

Nevertheless, there will be high volatility in the next few months with the ongoing Brexit process. Overall, the market gives an uptrend direction while it is best to position long-term orders. Although, traders are dubious on the market.

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